On April 2, all attention will be directed towards President Donald Trump as he unveils his vision for what he calls “Liberation Day.” This announcement is set to introduce a broad range of reciprocal tariffs, designed to impose taxes on imported products at the same rate as U.S. exports.
Trump claims that these tariffs will enhance domestic job opportunities and incentivize companies to bring their operations back to the United States. However, analysts caution that such measures could disrupt established trade relationships and result in higher costs for American consumers.
“This could initiate a situation that escalates into a global trade conflict. Ultimately, it may not just be about ‘America first,’ but rather about ‘America standing alone,’” remarked Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, an economics professor at Brown University, during an interview with TIME. “Other countries might be reluctant to engage in trade or business with the U.S.”
Typically, businesses that face tariffs tend to pass those additional costs onto consumers. For example, electronics prices might increase by around 10% due to existing tariffs, as noted by Budget Lab. Now, a wider array of products—from clothing to wine—could also see price hikes.
Studies suggest that low- and middle-income families will feel the most significant impact of these tariffs. Experts highlight that many households may struggle to cope with the sudden rise in prices.
These forthcoming tariffs come on the heels of Trump signing a presidential memorandum in February, aimed at ensuring fairness in U.S. trade practices. “We are moving away from a history of being exploited. This initiative will focus on the American worker, boost our industrial competitiveness, reduce the trade deficit, and enhance both our economic and national security,” states a fact sheet released by the White House. These trade measures are also part of a broader strategy by the Administration to generate revenue to balance out tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans.
However, Kalemli-Özcan argues that relying solely on tariffs will not effectively address the trade deficit. She warns that tariffs may isolate U.S. companies, cutting them off from international innovations and technological advancements. Without supportive policies for domestic manufacturing, industries could face substantial disruptions. “Establishing an entirely new industry and scaling it to meet the demands of U.S. consumers could take a decade,” she explains. “By then, the economy could be sluggish due to the stifling of economic dynamics.”
While the exact nature of the new reciprocal tariffs remains unclear, there are several potential impacts on everyday consumers.
Even before the new tariffs are officially announced, China—America’s largest trading partner—is already facing a 20% tariff, an increase from the 10% imposed earlier in February. During his campaign, Trump hinted at the possibility of tariffs exceeding 60% on all imports from China. According to estimates from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, such a tax could drastically reduce U.S. revenue, potentially slashing imports from China by about 85%. Given that China is a primary supplier of goods to the U.S.—including electronics, computers, and electric batteries—this could lead to higher prices for these products.
In response, China has levied a 15% tax on American agricultural products like chicken and wheat, while applying a 10% tariff to soybeans, pork, and fruits. Additionally, several U.S. companies reportedly face restrictions on their operations in China, as reported by the New York Times. These actions jeopardize the livelihoods of American farmers, as local suppliers in China may look for alternatives to U.S. imports. “The U.S. does not possess all the leverage in this situation,” notes Kalemli-Özcan. Chinese traders can easily source their fruit and poultry from other countries, while American farmers may struggle to secure new markets.
Trump has indicated that he might consider lowering tariffs on China as part of negotiations regarding TikTok, which is required to divest from its parent company ByteDance and find a U.S.-based buyer by April 5.
Meanwhile, Mexico and Canada—two of the U.S.’s largest trading partners and historically close allies—are also facing a 25% tariff on all goods.
The Budget Lab, which has analyzed the ramifications of these tariffs, predicts that grocery prices for fresh produce in the U.S. could increase by 2.9%. This price surge would particularly affect avocados, 90% of which are imported from Mexico. Furthermore, prior to the announcement of the 25% auto tariff, it was estimated that motor vehicle prices for American consumers could rise by 6.1%.
Ultimately, both consumers and businesses find themselves navigating a landscape of uncertainty as the Administration enacts fluctuating tariff policies. “These uncertainties send a clear message to consumers: ‘don’t spend,’ and to businesses: ‘cut back on investment… refrain from hiring new employees,’ due to the unpredictable outlook,” Kalemli-Özcan explains. While a recession may not directly arise from these tariffs, she anticipates a significant “slowdown in economic growth” as a result of such policies.