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As President Joe Biden nears his final days in the White House, he is beginning to understand the limited impact of his long-standing commitment to the Democratic Party once he exits the Oval Office.

In these last moments, Biden is likely experiencing a mix of frustration and a sense of betrayal, as his approval ratings sink to figures reminiscent of former President Jimmy Carter. Just last week, he paid tribute to Carter, another one-term Democrat who found himself at odds with a dissatisfied electorate that favored an unorthodox candidate. Adding to his woes, catastrophic wildfires in California have forced him to cancel plans for a final overseas visit to Italy and the Vatican. On Monday evening, he is scheduled to deliver the first of two addresses aimed at solidifying his legacy, although it’s doubtful these speeches will rekindle the enthusiasm of his party’s supporters as he shifts into the role of elder statesman.

The numbers tell a grim story: only 37% of Americans approve of Biden’s presidency, a modest improvement over Carter’s exit rating by about five points, but a considerable drop from the 53% approval he enjoyed at the start of his term, according to FiveThirtyEight’s data. An Associated Press-NORC poll indicates Biden’s approval hovers at 39%, with just 72% of Democrats backing him, a steep decline from the impressive 97% when he assumed office. Moreover, more than half of Democrats—55%—report feeling no better off now than they did before his presidency began, as noted in the same poll. Essentially, Biden is not perceived as a leader capable of steering a party that feels increasingly marginalized in the halls of power, mirroring his own predicament.

Since the midterm elections, a pervasive sense of discontent has emerged regarding Biden’s decisions, especially after the Democrats’ unexpectedly strong showing in the 2022 midterms, which had briefly sparked optimism for retaining the White House in 2024. His determination to pursue another term now seems misguided, although he remains steadfast in his aspirations. In a recent interview, he confidently claimed that he would have defeated Trump if they faced each other again.

“It’s presumptuous to say that, but I think yes,” Biden remarked during an exclusive exit interview with USA Today.

His unwavering optimism has further drained the already dwindling goodwill among Democrats. His choice to pardon his son, Hunter Biden, complicated the party’s message regarding equal treatment under the law, particularly in contrast to Trump’s ongoing legal issues. Additionally, his decision to award the nation’s highest civilian honors to individuals such as George Soros and Hillary Clinton drew significant criticism from conservative factions, while a bipartisan initiative to honor the late Governor George Romney received mixed reviews, despite the more favorable feedback he garnered for efforts to clear federal death row.

As Monday approaches, Biden will deliver his first farewell address at the State Department, highlighting what his administration believes to be foreign policy victories. However, critics within his own party are quick to underscore the setbacks, including the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, persistent conflicts in the Middle East, the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, and a more assertive China. Given Biden’s extensive experience as a senior Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, along with his roles as Vice President and President, this legacy-focused speech seems appropriate for a nation that may not currently be deeply engaged in global affairs.

Following this address, he plans to deliver a more traditional farewell from the Oval Office on Wednesday before returning to Delaware next Monday.

Discontent with outgoing Presidents is not a new phenomenon. Even among Democrats, there was a palpable sense of fatigue by the time Obama delivered his farewell speech in Chicago, the city where his political journey began. George W. Bush’s final months were punctuated by crises, including a financial meltdown and an auto industry bailout, which led him to prioritize legacy-building trips abroad over attending the GOP convention. Bill Clinton left office with considerable popularity, yet his Vice President, Al Gore, intentionally distanced himself in an effort to maintain Democratic control of the White House.

To be candid, Biden’s situation appears more precarious than that of his predecessors, according to polling data. Public sentiment has soured against him, with some Democrats attributing the potential rise of another Trump administration to his presidency. Even loyal supporters seem reluctant to engage with his legacy. While White House aides assert that Biden’s legislative achievements are comparable to those of past Presidents, a legacy is often shaped more by public perception than by the facts. This has been observed in previous elections, exemplified by Trump’s third campaign, Obama’s adept messaging during the 2008 crisis, and Bush’s pledges of decency following Clinton’s scandals.

However, Biden shouldn’t lose all hope: history indicates that former Presidents frequently experience a shift in their reputations post-presidency.

In this context—more than any carefully crafted speech or favorable narrative created by his team—Biden should take comfort. While current polling reflects a historic low, there remains significant room for resurgence, often occurring relatively swiftly. Gallup routinely conducts follow-up polls with former Presidents, and initial assessments have shown notable increases: Ronald Reagan experienced a 15-point jump, Carter a 12-point rise, and George H.W. Bush saw a 10-point boost in approval ratings. Perhaps, after some time away from the public eye, the nation might afford Biden a similar chance for redemption—though it will not alter the reality that he may never achieve the position he has long aspired to. Quick judgments—much like elections—can sometimes obscure the broader narrative.

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