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To understand the current turmoil within both political parties, you might want to look at an unexpected player: Matt Gaetz, the former House representative known for his controversies and his failed bid for Donald Trump’s Attorney General position.

Recent media reports suggest that the House Ethics Committee is preparing to announce its findings concerning Gaetz soon. It’s worth noting that Gaetz resigned from Congress last November, just hours before the committee was scheduled to reveal an investigation highlighting serious allegations about his conduct involving minors, financial misconduct, drug use, and more. These troubling claims played a significant role in his decision to step back from the race for the nation’s chief legal position.

In reaction to the unfolding drama, Gaetz released a comprehensive statement asserting his innocence against what he termed baseless accusations, attempting to shift the focus back onto his Republican colleagues. “My 30s were filled with hard work and hard partying,” he shared on X. “While I may have indulged more than I should, that’s not a crime. At least I didn’t back spending bills that hurt our nation!” Despite being sidelined, he continues to complicate efforts to pass a vital continuing resolution necessary for government operations.

It remains to be seen whether the upcoming report will change Gaetz’s political fortunes. Last week, One America News Network announced that he would be taking on a nightly talk show role on its strongly pro-Trump platform. Although it trails behind Fox News and Newsmax in viewership, it wields considerable influence among Trump’s base, including Trump himself, who frequently endorses its conspiracy-driven narratives.

Adding another layer to the intrigue, Politico revealed that Gaetz is in talks to join a well-known personal-injury law firm led by a prominent Democratic donor known for his outspoken criticism of President Biden’s campaign for reelection.

The fact that such diverse entities see promise in Gaetz is noteworthy, especially considering that the allegations against him have been public knowledge for years.

Like Trump, Gaetz seems to operate under the belief that he can dismiss serious allegations without facing consequences. While his resignation might have offered him a temporary escape from scrutiny, the House Ethics Committee has chosen to pursue action, possibly indicating a desire to challenge the prevailing culture of impunity surrounding figures like him.

Despite the chaos, Gaetz could symbolize the next evolution of the Republican Party as it navigates the post-Trump era.

Additionally, some suggest that Gaetz possesses political skills that Democrats might be able to exploit to their advantage.

Both viewpoints could have merit or be exaggerated. Still, the serious contemplation of these ideas underscores the considerable uncertainty both major parties currently face. This uncertainty has prompted lobbyists along K Street to diversify their networks this holiday season, just in case their predictions prove incorrect. Consulting firms are also hedging their bets by hiring traditional GOP figures and MAGA supporters while maintaining their Democratic ties for now.

The Republicans regained influence last month largely due to Trump and his affluent allies, including Elon Musk. The GOP is prepared to dominate the White House, the Senate, and hold a slim majority in the House—one that could shrink further if Trump manages to position loyalists in key national security and diplomatic roles. Addressing Trump’s sway, House Speaker Mike Johnson remarked, “Enough already,” in response to Trump’s attempts to consolidate authority within his fragile caucus.

Democrats are pushing back against any notions of a Republican mandate as they head into next year. However, unlike eight years ago when grassroots activists rallied to form The Resistance, there is no comparable movement emerging now. In fact, the Democratic base seems somewhat dispirited, which may explain why high-profile donor John Morgan, who claims his law firm is the largest personal-injury practice in the country, is interested in bringing Gaetz on board.

The political scene is so unpredictable at this moment that almost anything seems possible. Trump’s final push for power raises questions about whether his movement will endure beyond his tenure. The Reagan Revolution faded after he left, and there was little enthusiasm within the GOP for a post-presidency role for either Bush 41 or 43. While Trump has managed to regain influence, it remains uncertain if anyone in the MAGA universe can replicate his intensity—whether it be Vice President-elect J.D. Vance, Don Jr., or someone else.

On the Democratic side, the situation is just as opaque. Biden’s potential departure and Kamala Harris’s recent challenges create a significant gap in the party’s trajectory. Biden appears to have withdrawn from the political conversation in Washington as he and his team count down the days left in his administration. Meanwhile, Harris is beginning to lay the groundwork for her future, recently encouraging supporters at her Washington residence with statements like, “We do not allow anything to defeat us” and “We are not having a pity party.” Conversations about the future of the Democratic National Committee and its affiliated groups are intensifying, but there is little enthusiasm surrounding figures like Barack Obama or the Clintons, while a former Democratic House member with controversial opinions is poised to take on a significant role in the Trump Administration. Morgan, the prominent Democratic donor interested in hiring Gaetz, asserts that Harris’s political time is over.

Can you perceive the chaos unfolding?

The fact that Gaetz—a provocateur who challenges the status quo in both parties—is seen as a potential stabilizing force amid this turmoil is quite telling. Republicans may regard him as a loyalist who almost became a leader in a legal offensive against Trump’s critics, while Democrats understandably view him as a tarnished public figure. Both perspectives can coexist, and the public may soon largely see him as an unconvicted criminal, depending on what the ethics committee uncovers.

On December 12, Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska raised concerns from within the GOP’s remaining faction of MAGA supporters, stating, “I don’t think I’ve hidden the fact that I’m more of a Ronald Reagan Republican than a Trump Republican.” While she doesn’t support Gaetz, she is still considering some of Trump’s controversial nominees, such as the “compromised” former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and the accused sexual assaulter Pete Hegseth. Aware of potential backlash from her right flank, Murkowski embraced her identity as a political survivor and a steady voice against mob mentality, saying, “You can call me whatever you want.”

What other labels might people attribute to her? Perhaps a reliable gauge, even an early warning system. She seems to foresee how loyalty to Trump’s choices—Gaetz at the forefront—will impact their reception within the party. “We’re getting a preview of what it means to be loyal to [the] party, and I don’t think that will benefit us as Republicans,” Murkowski cautioned. “I believe it will energize and galvanize the Democrats.” This is why Democrats are at least curious about how someone like Gaetz can maneuver across multiple factions simultaneously.

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